Every year in the opens there is a repeat workout of a previous year.
17.4 was a repeat of 16.4
16.5 was a repeat of 14.5
15.2 was a repeat of 14.2
This is both good and bad, but mostly good. The good things about having a repeat workout in the opens is that you are able to see how your fitness has improved from last year and you also have the advantage of knowing how to pace and strategize since you already did the workout before.
The bad thing about a repeat workout is that if it was a bad workout for you it may come back to hurt your score in the opens for another year, however you should have been working on your weaknesses in the offseason so this should not happen.
By looking at past years opens we can make an educated guess of what the next years repeat workout might be and my prediction for 2018 is:
18.1 WILL BE A REPEAT OF 17.1
10 DB snatches 50/35#, 15 Burpee box jump overs 24/20
20 DB snatches 50/35#, 15 Burpee box jump overs 24/20
30 DB snatches 50/35#, 15 Burpee box jump overs 24/20
40 DB snatches 50/35#, 15 Burpee box jump overs 24/20
50 DB snatches 50/35#, 15 Burpee box jump overs 24/20
20 minute time cap
The reasoning behind this prediction
In the opens there is typically a thruster couplet for the last workout, a workout with a heavy barbell and a repeat workout from the previous year plus 2 work capacity pieces. For example, lets look at last year below.
17.1 Conditioning couplet
17.3 Heavy barbell
17.4 Repeat workout of 16.4
17.5 Thruster couplet
Why I’m predicting that the repeat workout for 2018 will be 17.1 is because of what we have already seen and what needs to be changed.
We can confidently guess that 18.5 will be some sort of thruster couplet, but in a different rep scheme or with a different complementary movement that we haven’t seen before so that will not be the repeat workout.
The workouts that include the heavy barbell have not been repeated yet, Crossfit HQ typically likes to test your strength with a different lift each year so it will not be 17.3 which included heavy snatches.
17.4 will not be the repeat workout as it was already a repeat of 16.4
That leaves us with either 17.1 which includes DB snatches and burpee box jump overs or 17.2 which had DB walking lunges, toes to bar, DB cleans, and bar muscle ups.
There is a chance that 17.2 could be the repeat workout but I see that as doubtful. Dave Castro and Crossfit HQ will probably want to use the dumbbells again for 2018, and they definitely like programming toes to bar and muscle ups, so I think all of those movements will be incorporated into a new chipper style workout and so the repeat WOD probably won’t be 17.2
This leaves us with 17.1
I am very confident that 17.1 will be the repeat workout for 2018, mainly because of the movements involved and because it just makes sense based on what we have previously seen in the Opens.
Yeah, maybe a couple people out of 400,000 were doing DB snatches and burpee box jump overs before the 2017 opens but they were the vast minority. Now you can find someone using a dumbbell or doing burpee box jump overs in most gyms as they try to prepare for the opens.
That workout was straight up work capacity and Crossfit loves that. They also like to make you learn how to pace yourself which is why it was an ascending ladder of DB snatches instead of a descending ladder.
If you believe this prediction to be true you should start ramping up your training on your snatches and BBJO, learn how to transfer the dumbbell to your other hand in mid air for efficiency and how to pace yourself during those burpees.
Even if the repeat workout turns out not to be 17.1 or there is no repeat workout at all, it is still beneficial to practice 17.1 as it will build your work capacity and carry over to other parts of your fitness.